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Beating the Market: Surprise, Surprise, the Monkeys Win!

05/17/2018

“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.” –Burt Malkiel, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” On the first day of my “Financial Economics” class at Chapman University, I ask the students to pick one single stock […]

Buffett’s Buffet: My Report on the Woodstock for Investors

05/10/2018

“Good investment ideas are rare, valuable and subject to appropriation just as good product or acquisition ideas are.” — Warren Buffett The bull market is back! Wall Street has rallied sharply after the government reported a better-than-expected jobs report last Friday without generating more inflation. The unemployment rate fell below 4% for the first time in many […]

Eureka Moment Proves Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle

05/03/2018

  As many of you know, I teach a course in the spring called “Financial Economics” at Chapman University, where I am a Presidential Fellow.  The course is about the contributions and insights of economists in the field of finance and investing. Over the years, there have been many breakthroughs, such those from University of […]

Can My New Supply-Side Statistic Predict the Future?

04/26/2018

“This truly is a major development. Not only is your GO becoming accepted, but you have truly changed the perspective on measurement. It is a paradigm shift, something that happens very rarely.” — Daniele Struppa, Chapman University “Best article ever on Gross Output.”  — George Gilder “It is brilliant. Write more.” — Newt Gingrich On […]

Away We GO: Trump Tax Cuts Unleash an Investment Boom in America

04/19/2018

Now we know why the stock market took off in 2017. Today, the federal government released a HUGE number for fourth-quarter 2017 gross output (GO), which I regard as the top line in national income accounting to measure spending at all stages of production. The latest GO data show that the U.S. economy is booming, […]

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1947: Making a Mark in Life

04/11/2018

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!” — William Wordsworth I’ve always believed that dates are important. It turns out that I celebrated my 40th birthday on the day of the stock market crash, October 19, 1987, six weeks after I forewarned my Forecasts & Strategies subscribers […]

The Austrian Indicator: What Is It Predicting Now?

04/05/2018

I presented two papers on Austrian economics at the annual Association of Private Enterprise Education (APEE) last week. One was called “Squaring the Mises Circle: How to Integrate Austrian Economics in the Classroom and Mainstream Textbooks.” The other was entitled, “Measuring Hayek’s Triangle: Gross Output as the Top Line in National Income Accounting and a Leading Indicator.” In […]

Bear Market Alert! This TRUMPet Gives an Uncertain Sound

03/29/2018

For if the TRUMPet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?” — 1 Corinthians 14:8 The Trump administration has given new meaning to “March Madness.” I warned last week that the only thing that could kill the bull market on Wall Street was bad public policy. The market had gotten ahead of itself at […]

Can You Predict the Future? Yes! (When It Counts)

03/22/2018

“Without vision, the people perish.” — Proverbs 29:18 “A forecast is never so useful as when it warns men of a crisis.” — Bertrand de Jouvenel  Last week, at the 20th anniversary of Investment U in Las Vegas, I debated Alex Green, the investment director of the Oxford Club and a longtime friend, on the ever-important subject, “Can You Predict the Future?” I […]

Supply-Side Victory in the White House: Is a Capital Gains Tax Cut Next?

03/15/2018

“Free-market capitalism is the best path to prosperity.” — Larry Kudlow The battle over the future of the economy and Wall Street can claim a new victory with the appointment of supply-sider, free-trader and longtime friend Larry Kudlow as President Trump’s chief economic advisor. He will head up the National Economic Council, replacing Gary Cohn.  Mark Skousen and Larry Kudlow […]

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