I will be teaching a new class at Chapman University during the coming semester called “Puzzles and Paradoxes in Economics and Finance.”
One example of a financial puzzle is known as the “Greed-Fear” Paradox. It seems that investors are schizophrenic when it comes to the U.S. tech sector.
According to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey, 80% of survey respondents said that being long in U.S. technology stocks, including biotech, is the “most crowded” trade in the market right now — a record for any asset since the survey began.
The greed factor is evidenced in 2020. The Nasdaq is up 42% more than the last six months against a 24% advance for the S&P 500.
In my own newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies, I have taken full advantage by adding several new positions in technology, in both e-commerce and pharmaceuticals.
The smart investor must know the “signs of the times.” We have switched from income investing to growth investing, and it has paid off.
Is the Tech Bull Market in a Bubble?
Yet, at the same time, investors are “paranoid” about the sector, with a “tech bubble” now seen as the second-biggest risk to this market, behind only a second wave of COVID-19.
They know that technology stocks are also the most volatile sector, next to gold. When the market sold off last week, we witnessed a “tech wreck.” As the old Wall Street saying goes, “The market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.”
Now, tech stocks are making a comeback. It is hard to predict when the Nasdaq will fall off a cliff again. Right now, investors are more confident that the economy is on the mend, and with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy at work, tech stocks could head higher.
Tech and Gold: The Best Combination
The second “most crowded” trade is in gold, which has also gone through a correction but is now headed higher. Gold is once again approaching $2,000 an ounce and is benefiting from the same factors as the tech bull market — easy money by the central bank.
With interest rates at historic lows, and the money supply (M3) growing at a record high 25% a year, precious metals are a winner in 2020.
That trend is likely to continue, and smart investors are diversifying into gold, silver and mining stocks. My favorite “speculation of the year” is already up 50% but it could move higher.
In my short-term trading service, TNT Trader, I specialize in both tech stocks and gold, and we’ve been making double- and triple-digit returns lately with stocks and call options.
I’ve also just added a “penny mining stock” portfolio — these are exploratory mining companies that sell for less than a buck but have the potential to make 300-1,000% on your money during the next year two-to-three years and could be bought out by major miners. All three are already up by 20% or more.
For more information, go to www.markskousen.com, or call Grant at 1-202-677-4492.
Update on Private ‘Off the Record’ Post-Election Summit
Finally, we are really excited to let you know about what is the first actual, in-person get together we’ve had since very early this year, and it is the just-confirmed, just-verified and ready to rock and roll financial event of this post-lockdown year.
Today, we are cordially inviting you to our private, in-person “off the record,” financial summit sponsored by the Investment Club of America. This confidential meeting will take place on Nov. 6-7 (right after the elections) in an undisclosed location in Las Vegas.
Why is this gathering so secretive? Because our First Amendment rights are being abridged by power-hungry politicians, and we need to maintain a low profile in an era of big government.
We live in dangerous times, in which our freedoms and wealth are threatened as never before. The November 2020 election has become the most important election of the 21st century due to the stark differences between the two parties. Trump and the Republicans are struggling to maintain power in the face of a never-ending pandemic. Their policies of tax cuts, deregulation and appointing conservative justices could be overturned soon.
As it stands today, the election betting odds still favor the Democrats. If the Biden/Harris ticket wins and the Democrats take over the House and the Senate, what will this mean for investors, entrepreneurs and the citizens of America? Will the stock market crash and gold soar?
Biden & Co. have promised massive tax increases on wealthy entrepreneurs, elimination of the long-term capital gains ‘break’ on stocks, bonds, gold, silver and real estate (with tax rates exceeding 50%).
They have also promised socialistic programs like Medicare for All, free college tuition, a New Green Deal, a wealth tax, severe limitations on free speech, a new Supreme Court, all on top of out-of-control government spending. The Great Suppression has begun!
That’s why we are holding this Post-Election Summit. It is critical to your pocketbook and your way of life.
And to help make sense of it all, we have brought together some of the world’s top experts to discuss the outcome of the November elections. What will it mean in terms of our citizens’ rights to speak out, to run our businesses, to invest, to travel, to assemble and to be left alone?
Will our freedoms and standard of living be curtailed due to new government policies? Will our wealth come under attack with new taxes, inflation and regulation? Will tech and gold continue to be the favorite stocks after the November elections?
We have brought out the best and the brightest analysts in finance, economics and politics to provide their analysis and answer your questions.
The Post-Election Global Financial Summit is an “in person,” face-to-face event – not a “virtual” conference. Due to legal restrictions, attendance at this in-person event will be limited. We urge you to register now and not be disappointed.
The price for this two-day event is $299. There are no discounts and we expect to sell out quickly. To learn more about the conference, go to https://globalfinancialsummit.co/.
After you register, you will be given the name and location of the Las Vegas hotel, and you then can reserve your room and make your travel arrangements. The hotel is only $99 per night, plus tax. There is no resort fee. Parking is free. We arranged a great deal for you!
Special Note: Please do not discuss this conference on social media. This is a private conference by special invitation only. Thank you.
Our Confirmed Speakers for This event:
Mark Skousen, veteran editor of Forecasts & Strategies and the producer of FreedomFest, will analyze the impact of the November elections on the economy, the dollar, taxes and your wealth. He will give specific recommendations — what to buy, what to sell and what to expect in the next year for stocks, bonds, the dollar, real estate and commodities.
Jo Ann Skousen, associate editor of Forecasts & Strategies and director of the Anthem Film Festival, will discuss her greatest concerns for the future — the protection of the twin pillars of freedom.
John Fund, senior editor of National Review and the nation’s foremost authority on politics and elections, will assess the good, the bad and the ugly coming out of the November elections.
Sean Flynn, economics professor at Scripps College (Clermont) and principal author of the top economics textbook in the country, will assess the “New Normal” after the elections — how to survive and prosper in an age of higher taxes, growing deficits and more regulations. As the author of “The Cure That Works,” he will update us on the future of health care and the pandemic.
Jim Woods, known as the Renaissance Man, the #1 financial blogger in the world according to Tip Ranks, and co-editor of Fast Money Alert with me, will discuss his favorite investment strategies for 2021.
Hilary Kramer, editor of the popular 2-Day Trader, a talk show host and a graduate of the MBA program at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, will discuss how the November elections will be a “GameChanger” (the title of her most popular book that was #1 on Amazon this year and was also on the Wall Street Journal bestseller list).
Bryan Perry, editor of the prestigious Cash Machine advisory service, will offer his best post-election investment choices in high-tech and high-income.
Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management and the world’s top authority on global investing and mining stocks, will offer specific advice on the outlook for global investing, the dollar, and commodities, with specific recommendations from blue-chip miners to penny stocks that are likely to double or triple in the coming year.
We just confirmed Barbara Kolm, vice president of the central bank of Austria, who will give us an update on Europe.
More speakers will be added soon and Roger Michalski, publisher of Eagle Financial Publications, will moderate.
Time is short, and now is the time to act if you wish to be part of this historic gathering. Attendance is strictly limited, so sign up today at https://globalfinancialsummit.co/.
You Nailed it!
The Best Court Decision Ever Written on the Lockdown
Today is Sept. 17, Constitution Day. Some 233 years ago, 39 members of Congress, including George Washington and Benjamin Franklin, signed the Constitution, which formed the basis of our rights and privileges.
Good news! The Constitution and our Bill of Rights are still alive, though hanging by a thread.
In a beautifully written opinion, Federal Judge William Stickman has issued a decision that Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf — like the governors of California, Nevada, New York and other states — overstepped his powers by shutting down small businesses in the state.
In a ringing 66-page decision, the Trump-appointed judge ruled that the lockdown of business is unconstitutional and un-American.
It deserves to be read by every lawyer, judge and law student in America. This is an enormously important decision in terms of economic freedom, so I provide some highlights below (emphasis added):
“The fact is that the lockdowns imposed across the United States in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are unprecedented in the history of our Commonwealth and our Country. They have never been used in response to any other disease in our history. They were not recommendations made by the CDC. They were unheard of by the people [of] this nation until just this year. It appears as though the imposition of lockdowns in Wuhan and other areas of China — a nation unconstrained by concern for civil liberties and constitutional norms — started a domino effect where one country, and state, after another imposed draconian and hitherto untried measures on their citizens. The lockdowns are, therefore, truly unprecedented from a legal perspective.”
“The Court declares, therefore, that the stay-at-home components of the Defendants’ orders were and are unconstitutional. Broad population-wide lockdowns are such a dramatic inversion of the concept of liberty in a free society as to be nearly presumptively unconstitutional unless the government can truly demonstrate that they burden no more liberty than is reasonably necessary to achieve an important government end. The draconian nature of a lockdown may render this a high bar, indeed.”
“An economy is not a machine that can be shut down and restarted at will by government. It is an organic system made up of free people each pursuing their dreams.”
“Courts surely may be willing to give in a fleeting crisis. But here, the duration of the crisis — in which days have turned into weeks and weeks into months — already exceeds natural disasters of other episodic emergencies and its length remains uncertain… Faced with ongoing interventions of indeterminate length, ‘suspension’ of national constitutional levels of scrutiny may ultimately lead to the suspension of constitutional liberties themselves.”
“There is no question that our founders abhorred the concept of one-person rule. They decried government by fiat. Absent a robust system of checks and balances, the guarantee of liberty set forth in the Constitution is just ink on parchment. There is no question that a global pandemic poses serious challenges for governments and for all Americans. But the response to a pandemic (or any emergency) cannot be permitted to undermine our system of constitutional liberties or the system of checks and balances protecting those liberties.”
“In a free state, the ability to earn a living by pursuing one’s calling and to support oneself and one’s family is not an economic good; it is a human good. Although jurisprudence may not afford the right to pursue one’s occupation the same weight as others in our hierarchy of liberties, it cannot be given such short shrift as to allow it to be completely subordinated to an ad hoc and arbitrary regimen that cannot even be reduced to an objective, written definition.”
“The liberties protected by the Constitution are not fair-weather freedoms — in place when times are good but able to be cast aside in times of trouble. There is no question that this Country has faced, and will face, emergencies of every sort. But the solution to a national crisis can never be permitted to supersede the commitment to individual liberty that stands as the foundation of the American experiment. The Constitution cannot accept the concept of a ‘new normal’ where the basic liberties of the people can be subordinated to open-ended emergency mitigation measures. Rather, the Constitution sets certain lines that may not be crossed, even in an emergency. Actions taken by Defendants crossed those lines. It is the duty of the Court to declare those actions unconstitutional.”
Read the full opinion here: https://www.scribd.com/document/476017344/Judge-Stickman-s-order-in-Butler-County-v-Wolf